Climatology Class

P: Okay. Let's see. We were discussing the major climatic changes on the Earth after the last ice age. I hope all of you made a point of taking detailed notes on the timeline. I can assure you it will be covered on our next quiz. Now, let's move on. Modern-day scientists and climatologists have been constantly warning us about potentially disastrous atmospheric changes. Most of the studies and debates on potential climate changes have focused on the ongoing build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global temperatures. But recent and rapidly-advancing evidence leads us to different perspectives in terms of the future of the Earth we live on. 

M: So the greenhouse gases are not as urgent and critical as we've been warned?

P: No, no. It's not the problem itself that is more or less critical. What we need to know is that this more prevailing line of thinking on the greenhouse gases, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. What I mean by that is, um, such a line of thinking ignores evidence that the Earth's climate has repeatedly shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future. Actually, this evidence inspired many science fiction movies on climatic disasters. I'm sure you've probably seen at least one of them.

W: Are you referring to the potential of another ice age?

P: Yes, that's right. Actually, I think another blockbuster movie on that theme was just released recently. Anyway, these movies may be exaggerating the phenomena a little, but they are not totally off track. You see, the truth is the Earth's climate has repeatedly shifted dramatically and in time spans as short as a decade. So, in principle, abrupt climate changes may be more likely in the future. Fossil evidence also clearly demonstrates that the Earth's climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns of climate that can persist for tens to hundreds of years. In addition, these shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects, but they can generate a counterintuitive scenario. What I mean by 'counterintuitive' is that even as the Earth as a whole continues to warm gradually. large regions may experience an abrupt and disruptive shift into colder climates. In other words, we can't just be worried about the rise of the Earth's temperature because it may cause other parts of the world. possibly a big part. to freeze at the same time. And, as you can imagine the impact could be disastrous, particularly when we are not prepared for it. Anyway, this new paradigm of abrupt climate changes has been well established over the last decade through research into oceans, the Earth, and the atmosphere by scientists at many institutions worldwide But the concept remains little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of scientists, economists, policymakers, and world political and business leaders. Thus, world leaders may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur. I can only say it's a great pity for all of us.

  counterintuitive: seemingly contrary to common sense